Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's isolation is growing

The defection of Nawaf al-Fares shows that the conflict is sliding inexorably into a primarily ethnic civil war

Julian Borger, diplomatic editor
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 11 July 2012

"The defection of Syria's ambassador to Baghdad marks the second time in a week that Bashar al-Assad has been deserted by a top Sunni ally, suggesting that the isolation of the Allawite core of the regime is accelerating, and that the conflict is sliding inexorably into a primarily ethnic civil war.

Like Manaf Tlass (below), the Republican Guard general whose defection became known last Thursday, Nawaf al-Fares is part of the Syrian Sunni elite, whose alliance with the Assad family and the Allawite security apparatus was the pillar on which the Syrian Ba'ath party regime was built. As that pillar crumbles, what is left is a heavily armed, highly militarised Allawite minority with its back to the wall in the face of a vengeful, if fragmented, Sunni majority.

Fares is an especially significant figure. His selection by Assad in 2009 as Syria's first ambassador to Baghdad in three decades was a high honour reflecting his status in Syrian society. He was the head of the Ba'ath party in his home city of Deir ez-Zor, the seventh largest in Syria, as well as serving as governor of the sensitive Quneitra province, along the Israeli border.

Most importantly, Fares is the Syrian head of the Uqaydat tribe which straddles the Syrian-Iraqi border along the Euphrates river. They and other border tribes have long been a powerful force in the region's history and some observers see them as the key to Assad's survival......."

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